| Posted by: dellamorte dellamore at March 3, 2008, 11:25 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I think Bc should do well also , it looks like braindead cheese infested fun , the kind of which we haven't seen in awhile . I know i want to see it , so 45 - 50 sounds about right . The bank Job , don't know about that one , it also looks good , just not sure about it's appeal and it's rating , 7 mil probably , although it could snag the people that can't get into Bc . The road trip could do about 20 . That Raven show is popular on the Disney channel , so it should get those fans out there . | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at March 3, 2008, 10:50 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Agreed Bourne. The Bank Job looks like a solid flick, but 10,000 B.C. is stiff competition (both chasing a primarily male audience) and the semi-wide release also limits its potential. I think 10,000 B.C. will open huge and then fall fast. I think people are ready for some spectacle, plus it's got very little competition and a PG-13 rating. I can see it making $50 million this weekend. College Road Trip will also do well. It's got recognizable faces in it and a G rating. It could get close to $20 million. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at March 3, 2008, 7:29 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | But the fact that The Bank Job has had little to no marketing, and the fact it is only in 1400 theatres max, does not bode well for it. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: ilovemovies at March 2, 2008, 11:54 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Based on some of the reviews, I think The Bank Job could be a sleeper hit. I know Roeper's review actually got me excited about the movie. It sounds like it starts off as an average heist movie but becomes very complicated. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: bigred760 at March 2, 2008, 5:05 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I think 10,000 BC will be number one, but I'm thinking around $20-$30 million at best. College Road Trip will do about $15 million methinks. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at March 2, 2008, 1:00 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | 1. 10,000 BC- $40 million 2. College Road Trip- $17 million 3. Semi-Pro- $9 million 4. Vantage Point- $7 million 5. The Spiderwick Chronicles- $6 million 6. The Bank Job- $5 million 7. The Other Boleyn Girl- $4.5 million 8. Jumper- $4 million 9. Step Up 2 the Streets- $3.5 million 10. Fool's Gold- $2.75 million I have a feeling that 10,000 BC is going to be huge, maybe even bigger than I am predicting. College Road Trip should do alright. Semi-Pro should have a small dorp. Vantage Point should have a small drop, as should The Spiderwick Chronicles. The Bank Job is only in around 1,400 theatres, so I don't expect it will to do well. The Other Boleyn Girl should drop less than 50%, as should Jumper, Step Up 2 the Streets, and Fool's Gold. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 26, 2008, 4:27 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I don't think spring break will have any impact on 10,000 B.C.'s opening weekend number. It might help a little during the week if people are not in school and want to see a flick. Also, I doubt people see the studio logo before the trailer and/or TV spots and go, "Hey! They made 300, and that movie kicked ass! That means this movie will kick ass too! I will go see it now." This will do well for other reasons already mentioned, like the lack of competition and PG-13 rating, plus the pure spectacle that's in the advertising for it. It's a big summer movie opening in March, and it should draw large crowds. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: bigred760 at February 25, 2008, 8:28 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | There was a lot of positive buzz for 300; haven't hear anything along those lines for 10,000 BC. I'll give you the spring break possibilities, but I don't think there will be too many comparisons to 300. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 25, 2008, 6:24 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I don't think 10,000 BC has a chance of bombing. There have been trailers at all the hit movies for a while now, plenty of TV spots on all day long, it is coming out the same day 300 did last year (I know it seems irrelevant but even mainstreamers think about that shit), it's made by the same company that produced 300 (again, seems irrelevant but when people see that logo, they reimagine the sheer badassery to them that was 300 last year). I know most of these reasons seem stupid, and maybe they are, but when people think of 10,000 BC, they think of 300, and let's make no mistake about it, 300 was a huge hit that had a $70 million opening weekend. Not to mention the increasing amount of people that are starting to dig films like these, it has a PG-13 rating and has ZERO competition. Enough of my rant, I predict a $40+ million opening weekend for 10,000 BC. I also believe it is the beginning of the spring break for many teens in the US and Canada (correct me if I'm wrong about the US, but it definitely is in ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: corran horn at February 25, 2008, 3:22 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by bigred760 I think it'll bomb. I haven't heard anyone say they want to see the movie. It might open #1, due to a lack of competition, but I think it'll do Jumper numbers. The only reason it might do well is because people want to see the DARK KNIGHT, IRON MAN, and possibly INCREDIBLE HULK trailers attached to it. No one I know is interested in 10,000 BC, but that may not mean much. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 25, 2008, 10:24 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Part of me thinks the R-rating could hinder Semi-Pro's box office a little bit, but it's a slow weekend and Ferrell is so popular. $30 million seems like a reasonable guess. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: bigred760 at February 24, 2008, 6:36 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by Bourne101 BTW, how does everyone think 10,000 BC will open? I can't see it putting up 300 numbers, but I expect it will do pretty well. I think it'll bomb. I haven't heard anyone say they want to see the movie. It might open #1, due to a lack of competition, but I think it'll do Jumper numbers. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 24, 2008, 2:59 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | BTW, how does everyone think 10,000 BC will open? I can't see it putting up 300 numbers, but I expect it will do pretty well. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 24, 2008, 2:55 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by ilovemovies Is Penelope not opening wide? And you really think The Other Boleyn Girl will do that bad? You don't think the Portman/Johansson teaming will help it? Penelope is opening in 1200 theatres, and to be honest I'd never even heard about it until about an hour ago. And yes The Other Boleyn Girl will most likely do that bad. It looks very generic and hasn't been marketed well at all. People that are going to the movies next weekend will either be going to see Semi-Pro or another film released in the past few weeks that they missed. The Other Boleyn Girl has DVD rental written all over it. I could be wrong though. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: ilovemovies at February 24, 2008, 2:40 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Is Penelope not opening wide? And you really think The Other Boleyn Girl will do that bad? You don't think the Portman/Johansson teaming will help it? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 24, 2008, 2:33 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | 1. Semi-Pro- $30 million
2. Vantage Point- $12 million
3. The Spiderwick Chronicles- $8.5 million
4. Jumper- $7 million
5. Step Up 2 the Streets- $4.75 million
6. Be Kind Rewind- $3.25 million
7. Fool's Gold- $3.2 million
8. Juno- $3 million
9. Definitely, Maybe- $2.75 million
10. The Other Boleyn Girl- $2.5 million Pretty much any film that stars Will Ferrell and is in a wide release, is bound to make $30+ million. I don't think the R-rating will hurt it at all. This time last year Wild Hogs opened with around $40 million, and don't think that was all teens, I would say 75% of tickets were sold to people over age 60, lol. I saw it on opening weekend and it was sold out with about 90% of the theatre being old people. Semi-Pro should fare pretty well. Vantage Point should drop around 50%. The Spiderwick Chronicles will continue to drop small until the end of its run. Jumper will probably drop a little less than 50% in its third week of release. Step Up 2 the Streets will co... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 4:20 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I saw three reviews from not exactly reputable sources, so there sure aren't many and they're nothing to write home about. Bourne, true that. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Rawlin67 at February 19, 2008, 4:10 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by MadsenOMC Why do you think the marketing will attract "a shit load of people?" Does it really look that unique and interesting? It's been delayed (filmed in summer '06 and originally a fall release) and I'm not even sure it's screening for critics, so I'm not sure why it's so certain to be a good movie. its got reviews already. its had a few up since last week. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 4:04 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | To me it seems like a PG-13 movie that is not aimed at the teen audience. I can see why teens would flock to, say, Jumper. Vantage Point not so much. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 19, 2008, 3:57 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Mainstream audience doesn't care how long a movie has been delayed and they most likely don't know it has been delayed. I don't know, a lot of teens have been talking about it. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 3:55 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | It's been marketed for ages because it was initially a fall release. The delay is not a good sign as far as the movie's quality is concerned. People whispering all over the auditorium is hardly a solid way to gauge a movie's box office potential. I also just don't see teens flocking to see this. Adults, maybe. I don't see a lot of teen appeal in a movie like this though. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 19, 2008, 3:50 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | This movie has been marketed for ages. The trailer came out like early in the summer if I remember correctly and everytime I see the trailer at the theatre people are always whispering all over the auditorium "Oh, we'll have to see that one." And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who has heard that when this trailer has played at the theatre. There have been dozens of TV spots playing on many stations and there was a Superbowl trailer I believe. The plot is mysterious and intriguing especially for the mainstream audience. It's PG-13 so teens and adults will flock to see it. It's the only release this week that exceeds 1500 theatres and it is in 3000 theatres. The cast, although not the biggest BO attracting cast, is pretty solid with very popular Matthew Fox from lost, Forrest Whitaker, and Dennis Quaid (who is in plenty of mainstream loving movies). It's also not too lengthy of a film (around 100 minutes I guess?) So if it doesn't make $25 million, it won't be much less. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 3:40 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by ilovemovies Regardless of how the movie's quality will turn out, it looks exciting and the marketing for the movie has been great. I disagree, so it'll be interesting to see how this one does at the B.O. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: ilovemovies at February 19, 2008, 3:38 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Regardless of how the movie's quality will turn out, it looks exciting and the marketing for the movie has been great. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 3:36 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Why do you think the marketing will attract "a shit load of people?" Does it really look that unique and interesting? It's been delayed (filmed in summer '06 and originally a fall release) and I'm not even sure it's screening for critics, so I'm not sure why it's so certain to be a good movie. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 19, 2008, 3:30 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by MadsenOMC I am not the least bit interested in Vantage Point and I don't think $25 million is possible. Maybe you don't think so, but this movie has had marketing that will undoubtedly attract a shit load of people. I'd say $25 million is not out of the question at all, infact it could make more. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 19, 2008, 11:04 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I never watch the CW and rarely watch the major networks, so like I said, I guess it depends on what channels you watch. I never saw a single TV spot prior to its release. But it obviously found its audience. Very impressive opening. I am not the least bit interested in Vantage Point and I don't think $25 million is possible. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: ilovemovies at February 18, 2008, 10:57 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Quote: Originally Posted by MadsenOMC It must just depend on what channels one watches and when. I do not watch any MTV, which I assume is promoting it like crazy. I do not think there is any chance this one opens to more than $20 million. There's too much direct competition. Jumper and Definitely, Maybe are also PG-13 and gunning for the 13-20 age group (in addition to other demos). If more than one movie opens to more than $20 million this weekend (as Jumper is certain to), it will be The Spiderwick Chronicles. I don't watch mtv either. I watch FOX, ABC, NBC, CBS (not really, actually) and the CW (and just barely, infact, I only watch two shows on it and one of those haven't been on in quite a while) and I've seen quite a few Step Up 2 commercials. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: Bourne101 at February 17, 2008, 3:59 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | 1. Vantage Point- $25 million 2. The Spiderwick Chronicles- $12 million 3. Jumper- $11 million 4. Step Up 2 the Streets- $9.5 million 5. Be Kind Rewind- $8 million 6. Charlie Bartlett- $7 million 7. Fool's Gold- $7.5 million 8. Definitely, Maybe- $6 million 9. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins- $5 million 10. Juno- $3.5 million Vantage Point has been marketed like crazy and I'm sure everyone is dying to know what the fuck happens (I know I am!), so I expect it to do pretty well. The Spiderwick Chronicles will have a great word of mouth and it is the only kids movie out there so it should drop very small next weekend. Jumper will drop like a rock with a poor word of mouth and Vantage Point in it sway. Step Up 2 the Streets will drop around 50%. Be Kind Rewind is only in 800 theatres but should have a solid PTA that will probably keep it in the top 5. Charlie Bartlett is only in 1000 theatres, but it has been marketed pretty well so the PTA should be pretty high. Fool's Gold will drop small again. Definitely, Maybe ... | | Read Entire Entry |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 12, 2008, 3:53 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | It must just depend on what channels one watches and when. I do not watch any MTV, which I assume is promoting it like crazy. I do not think there is any chance this one opens to more than $20 million. There's too much direct competition. Jumper and Definitely, Maybe are also PG-13 and gunning for the 13-20 age group (in addition to other demos). If more than one movie opens to more than $20 million this weekend (as Jumper is certain to), it will be The Spiderwick Chronicles. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: EDsoulsurvive* at February 12, 2008, 3:46 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | #1 might be overshooting it, and although internet hype might not be there, I'm fairly confident that it will open at least above the original. I could be completely wrong, I hope I am, but thats my gut feeling. Contrary to what you said Madsen, I feel like I can't escape the ads for this. Yesterday one of my roommates actually said he can't wait for it to come out just so he doesn't have to see the commercials anymore. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 12, 2008, 11:05 am | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | Really? I know the first one did well but this one is flying under the radar. I haven't seen a single bit of advertising other than a lone billboard in the city. I guess the MTV kids could go in droves this weekend, but I can't see it opening at #1. | | Static Link |
| Posted by: bigred760 at February 11, 2008, 4:19 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | I remember seeing Jumper being released on Valentine's Day - Thursday; what about the others this weekend? Thursday or Friday? | | Static Link |
| Posted by: MadsenOMC at February 11, 2008, 3:21 pm | | Topic: Box Office Predictions Thread Forum: JoBlo | | And then again, if enough guys can convince their wife/girlfriend/date to see Jumper (which does appear to have perfunctory a love story in it), that may take away a significant chunk of Definitely, Maybe's audience, causing it to have a soft opening. | | Static Link |
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